Fertility intentions of China’s one-child generation: a comparative analysis with the US

Abstract

ABSTRACT In 1979, China introduced the one-child policy to curb rapid population growth, enforcing birth quotas with penalties. This study examines the impact of only-child status on fertility intentions using data from the 2017 Chinese General Social Survey. Findings from OLS and multinomial logistic regression models indicate that only children have significantly lower fertility desires, even after controlling for demographic and socioeconomic factors. Notably, only children have a 20% higher likelihood of wanting 0–1 children compared to those with siblings. An OLS model interacting only-child status with birth cohort reveals that individuals born during the peak enforcement period (1979–1983) exhibit particularly reduced fertility intentions, reflecting a stronger internalization of small family ideals. Although this effect weakens in later cohorts, the association between only-child status and lower fertility desires persists. A comparative analysis with data from the 2016 and 2018 US General Social Survey shows that these patterns are unique to China, underscoring the lasting influence of the one-child policy on fertility mindsets. The results suggest that China's continued low fertility may be partly driven by these deeply ingrained attitudes.