Abstract
This study analyses the socio-economic determinants of the short-term fertility plans of Italian women and men living as couples, before and shortly after the onset of the 2007/2008 Great Recession, which may have affected their reproductive plans through a climate of rising economic uncertainty. Using multilevel models, we investigate how fertility intentions are related to the individual characteristics of the respondents and their partners as well as to changes in the economic context. The findings confirm that the Great Recession modified the determinants of short-term fertility intentions differently for women and men. Among the most relevant issues, we outline the importance of couples’ working conditions and the contextual labour market indicators.
Highlights
Changes in fertility behaviour are among the most intensively studied issues in demographic research
Starting from the assumption that in Italy childbearing decisions are realistic only when taken at the couple level, we considered Italian men and women ages 18–45 living as couples, as here fertility intentions are not considered as the long-run or ideal target, but rather as real-life prospects in the short term for cohabiting or married people
We present the results in the form of average marginal effects (AME), which express the average effect of the corresponding variable on the probability of obtaining a positive fertility intention
Summary
Changes in fertility behaviour are among the most intensively studied issues in demographic research. Recent works address fertility intentions, which pertain to the additional children that women and men intend to have, and concern the planning of actions towards a particular goal or a determination to act in a certain way (Morgan 2001). A deterioration in the labour market may induce perceptions and expectations of job instability, economic insecurity, awareness of the crisis, and depression, which in turn may affect fertility intentions and fertility (Andersson 2000; Adsera 2004; Philipov et al 2006; Sobotka et al 2011; Kreyenfeld et al 2012) and may constrain the childbearing plans of men and women (Kotowska et al 2008).
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