Abstract
Differential fertility preferences for men and women may provide insights into human sexual conflict. We explore whether pairbonded couples have different preferences for future offspring, which socioecological factors are associated with these preferences, and who achieves their desired fertility over time. We utilise the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), a longitudinal survey which collected data from 1993 to 2015, to compare desired future fertility for 9655 couples and follow couples who had divergent preferences. The majority of couples (64.8%) want the same number of future offspring. In 20.7% of couples, husbands want more future offspring than their wives, while the reverse occurs in 14.5% of couples. Living in villages with the husband's or the wife's parent(s) is associated with having divergent preferences for future offspring, where there is a higher likelihood that women prefer more offspring than their husbands. When examining fertility outcomes, women, particularly those who marry at older ages, are more likely to achieve their desired preference. Contrary to previous research, we do not find that living near one's natal kin or having increased autonomy increases an individual's likelihood of achieving desired fertility outcomes.
Highlights
Social media summary: Who wants more children and who achieves their preference? A longitudinal study of Indonesian couples finds out
These results show that approximately 64.8% of couples have the same preference for future offspring
A one-sample test of proportions indicates that, among couples who have differing preferences for future offspring, the proportion of couples where husbands prefer more offspring than wives is statistically greater than 50%, z(3823) = 10.75, p < 0.001
Summary
Social media summary: Who wants more children and who achieves their preference? A longitudinal study of Indonesian couples finds out. It has been hypothesised that differential cost of reproduction corresponds to disparate preferences for ideal number of children over one’s lifetime – children conceived across multiple mates (Mulder & Rauch, 2009; Penn & Smith, 2007), but it is not necessarily the case that within a reproducing couple differential costs explain differences in desired family size (Moya et al, 2016). If a man tries to persuade or exploit a woman to increase her reproduction to a level that is maladaptive, he will be hurting his reproductive success within that pairbond as well This assumes that people are optimising their fertility, that ‘costs’ are fitness-related and that men have consistent paternity certainty over time within a given pairbond, none of which are necessarily true (for a more detailed discussion of the factors that influence optimal male and female reproductive rates, see Moya et al, 2016). Hypothesis 1: Men have higher ideal family sizes than women, but within reproducing couples, desire similar numbers of future offspring
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