Abstract
The article is devoted to the analysis of fertility indicators in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Along with the total fertility rate for all births, the author traces the dynamics of birth order-specific fertility rates, as well as actual cohort fertility rates estimated by 2010 All-Russian census data. Particular attention is paid to the differences between these indicators in urban districts and municipal areas of the region. When considering the possible relationship of fertility indicators with the implementation of regional measures of demographic policy, special attention is paid to third and subsequent births, the level and dynamics of which can be influenced by the amount of regional maternal (family) capital, which is larger in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug than in other federal subjects of Russia. The results of the analysis show that the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug is among regions with a relatively high level and a young model of fertility. To a greater extent, this manifests itself in the second, third and subsequent births.
Highlights
Fertility largely determines the mode of population reproduction, its natural growth, and the dynamics of the population size in general.In Russia, after almost collapsing in the 1990s, fertility slightly increased in the early 2000s
Along with the total fertility rate for all births, the author traces the dynamics of birth order-specific fertility rates, as well as actual cohort fertility rates estimated by 2010 All-Russian census data
When considering the possible relationship of fertility indicators with the implementation of regional measures of demographic policy, special attention is paid to third and subsequent births, the level and dynamics of which can be influenced by the amount of regional maternal capital, which is larger in the Yamal– Nenets Autonomous Okrug than in other federal subjects of Russia
Summary
Fertility largely determines the mode of population reproduction, its natural growth, and the dynamics of the population size in general. The total fertility rate (TFR) in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug was 1.825 in 2019, which is much higher than average Russian indicator (1.504) or that of the Ural Federal Okrug (1.623). It should only be noted that if in general in Russia the increase in the TFR continued until 2015, the maximum value in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug was reached in 2014 (2,189). Judging by the increase in the crude fertility rate in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug in 2020, we can expect an increase in the TFR to an even greater extent than the crude rate, since its increase was impeded by negative changes in the sex and age structure of the population, namely, a reduction in the proportion of women of active reproductive age. The higher birth rate in the Tazov and Yamal districts due to ethnic peculiarities of reproductive behaviour of rural women was noted by the team of researchers of the Arctic Research Center (Andronov, et al 2018)
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