Fertility in Southern Africa: The Quiet Revolution

Abstract

Over the past twenty to thirty years, a silent revolution has occurred, and is still occurring, in human fertility across the region of southern Africa. In a number of countries - most notably, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa and Lesotho - there is hard evidence of really significant declines in fertility. In these countries, the total fertility rate (TFR)' today is around three to four children, and in the first three countries this represents a decline of 40-50 per cent from its peak level.2 The starting point for these changes varies: in South Africa, the transition among the black population was probably under way by the 1960s, although the most significant shift probably came in the 1980s;3 by comparison in Botswana it was not evident until the 1980s. In contrast with many other demographic variables, where national data are often unavailable or have to be treated with caution (e.g. for migration or rates of urban growth), reasonably reliable data on fertility are generally accessible for most southern African countries, although the official South African data only became available in the 1990s and remain the subject of debate. The changing aspect of fertility in southern Africa largely informed our decision to hold the workshop that was the precursor to this special issue. The 'fertility transition' was evidently happening to a greater or lesser degree across the region, but it was also clear that the cultural 'value' (rather than just the 'economic' value) of children remained high. The workshop attempted to explore the articulation of these two factors in contemporary southern Africa and focused on addressing fertility in its social context rather than in purely technical demographic terms. In general, the interplay between fertility, the adoption of contraceptives, education, income and the usual range of socio-economic factors is taken as read by the contributors to this volume - these issues are well addressed in the, often highly quantitative, demographic journals. Similarly, the significance of fertility in traditional cultures is also largely assumed, and is well covered in the ethnographic literature. Contributors were encouraged instead to explore the underlying reasons for fertility-related decisions and outcomes in the region and, rather than focus on the general causes of the trend to lower fertility, to examine those factors that result in variations in the downward regional trend. We were led in this direction by the belief that a close study of these regional variations would be a more illuminating way of understanding the complex