Abstract
The results of the Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS) in 2017 confirm that although the prevalence of contraception is quite high, the fertility rate in North Sumatera Province is still high. Fertility decomposition analysis has been used extensively to identify changes in fertility in various countries. This study was conducted to determine the pattern of changes in fertility decomposition in North Sumatra by using IDHS data in 2002/03 and 2017. The total fertility rate (TFR) from 2002 to 2017 in this province relatively remains the same, which is around 3 children per woman. There was a change in the proximate contribution of the determinant of fertility. Contraceptive use and effectiveness are the main contributors affecting the fertility rate in North Sumatra Province. The contribution of breastfeeding patterns has increased and marital patterns have decreased over a period of 15 years. The implementation of population and family planning programs in North Sumatra Province needs to be continuously improved to reach a TFR of 2.1 children per woman by 2024. Promotion of exclusive breastfeeding needs to be encouraged to extend the birth interval and reduce natural fertility. Prevention programs for child marriage and teenage pregnancy should be promoted.
Highlights
The family planning program in Indonesia has succeeded in reducing the fertility rate massively (Angeles, Guilkey and Mroz, 2005)
The analysis focuses on the fertility decomposition based on the Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS) 2002/03
The results of the calculation of research variables and indexes (TFR, total marital fertility rate (TMFR), Cm, fy, fm, e, Cc, APK, TNMFR, i, Ci, and total fecundity rate (TF)) of North Sumatra Province based on IDHS in 2002/03 and IDHS in 2017 are presented in table 1
Summary
The family planning program in Indonesia has succeeded in reducing the fertility rate massively (Angeles, Guilkey and Mroz, 2005). The fertility rate of North Sumatra Province is 2.9 children per woman and the contraceptive prevalence rate is 59 percent. The pattern of contraceptive prevalence and effectiveness resulted in currently married women in North Sumatra having fewer births, namely 6.71 births (TNMFR-TMFR = 11.414.70 = 6.71).
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