Fertility Fails to Predict Voter Preference for the 2020 Election: A Pre-Registered Replication of Navarrete et al. (2010).

Abstract

As part of the Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence (SCORE) program, the present study reassesses the claim made in Navarrete et al. (2010) Study 1, that women's voter preference for male candidates who demonstrate cues of strong genetic fitness increases across the reproductive cycle as a function of conception risk. We report an attempt to conceptually replicate these findings, modifying the outcome variables for voter preference to reflect the 2020 election rather than the 2008 election, while maintaining fidelity to the original study by including Barack Obama as a candidate. Contrary to the original findings, conception risk did not predict greater voter support for Obama as a younger, more attractive alternative to Donald J. Trump, nor was conception risk a significant factor in other matchups we presented to participants. Candidate intelligence and participant psychopathy scores on the Dark Triad were found to be factors in preference for Obama/Biden or Trump, respectively. We discuss these results in the context of evolutionary and political psychology, suggesting the need for further research that takes political factors into account.