Fertility decline in three Ontario cities, 1861-1881

Abstract

The analysis of individual records from the 1861 and 1881 manuscript censuses from 3 Ontario (Canada) cities--Toronto London and Kingston--provided documentation of the importance of sociodemographic factors in the decline in marital fertility in this time period. A total of 11504 records for women 15-49 years of age were available for review. The dependent variable was the number of children 0-4 years old for each married woman; independent variables were mothers religion mothers birthplace maternal age social class and region. In 1861 fertility differentials were most closely associated with age maternal birthplace and locality. Women 25-34 years of age who were born in Ireland had significantly higher fertility than their counterparts born in Canada or elsewhere and than older Irish-born women. In addition marital fertility was highest in Kingston and lowest in Toronto. By 1881 however the effects of city were no longer significant and the strongest differentials were related to religion. The largest declines in marital fertility between 1861 and 1881 occurred among Methodists; Anglicans showed reductions in the middle range while Catholics and Presbyterians experiences the smallest reductions. A somewhat weaker but still significant inverse correlation was found between social class and marital fertility with women from the lowest social group exhibiting the highest fertility. A comparison of fertility changes between 1861 and 1881 further revealed evidence of both birth spacing and birth stopping. The average fertility reduction in the 20-39 year age group was 20% while that in the 40 years and over group was 40%. Although birthplace was no longer a significant correlate of marital fertility in 1881 Canadian-born women of Irish descent had higher fertility than others. Finally there was a significant closing of the fertility differential between Toronto and the other 2 cities in the study period. This reduction in spatial differentiation reflected the increasing correspondence of fertility behavior to religion and general diffusion through the urban hierarchy.