Fertility decline and social change: new trends and challenges

Bali Ram

doi:10.25336/p6x01r

Abstract

This article presents an overview of recent fertility declines and their effects on social change in both industrialized and industrializing countries. The focus is primarily on the levels and age patterns of fertility, which influence social change through three major mechanisms, reductions in population growth, modifications in age structure, and changes in family structure. Some future prospects are also discussed, especially in the view of the viability of immigration as a solution to population stability, graying of the industrialized world, intergenerational support, and loneliness.

Highlights

Ever since the publication of Malthus’ An Essay on the Principle of Population in 1798, people have been writing books and articles about the social and economic effects of population growth
The picture has changed since the 1970s, following fertility declines in industrialized countries, as well as in a number of less industrialized countries
With sustained fertility declines in industrialized countries, the relative importance of natural increase and immigration as components of population growth have shown a dramatic shift in recent years

Summary

Introduction

Ever since the publication of Malthus’ An Essay on the Principle of Population in 1798, people have been writing books and articles about the social and economic effects of population growth. During the following fifteen years (1960-1975), the total fertility rate stabilized around two children, but declined further to a level significantly below replacement (1.5 in 1990-95).

Results

Conclusion