Fertility Decline and Pronatalist Policy in Singapore

Abstract

In 1819 a few 100 Malays inhabited the island of present day Singapore and after the British East India Company began a trading post here the population increased quickly to >137000 by 1881. 3 migration droves occurred in the 1819-1930s period consisting mainly of Chinese and to a lesser extend Indians and Malays. Partially due to the efforts of the Singapore Family Planning and Population Board and to a government campaign to encourage small families in the 1960s the total fertility rate in Singapore declined from 5.5-1.6 (1967 and 1983 respectively). This trend and differentials between the average number of children of women with little or no formal education (3.5) and university educated women (1.6) concerned the Prime Minister. He initiated a change to a pronatalist policy without seeking public opinion. Many believe another reason for this switch in policy had to do with the fact that the below replacement fertility pattern was found only among Chinese women. Since the Chinese are dominant politically economically and socioculturally government leaders may not want to lose this dominance. Further the government does not consider immigration as a means of maintaining population size so the effort to promote higher fertility may continue for years even though some social scientists doubt that higher fertility can be achieved. Nevertheless the people of Singapore may not be willing to risk their higher standard of living by having large families despite any financial incentives the government offers. In addition women have become an essential and integral part of the labor force and higher rates of female participation in the labor market accompanies low fertility.