Fertility and Family Planning Surveys: Future Priorities in the Light of Past Experiences

Abstract

This article reviews the experience of the Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (CPS) and the World Fertility Survey (WFS) and attempts to identify their major implications for similar future projects particularly the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). The legacy of the WFS and CPS in demographic description is valuable and lasting. Their achievements have shown that complex surveys can be conducted successfully in nearly all countries of the world if reasonable levels of financial and technical assistance are provided. The data are not without defects but their overall quality has surprised many demographers who probably would have argued 15 years ago that the collection of detailed birth histories in Africa and other less-developed regions was a waste of time. The WFS in particular has brought about a profound change in the scope of demographic data collection and the DHS can build upon solid foundations. Estimates of fertility and childhood mortality patterns together with measures of such direct determinants of fertility as age at marriage contraceptive use and breastfeeding are essential for formulating priorities and monitoring broad population and health policies. But they offer little practical guidance to service managers of family planning programs in the search for cost-effective improvements. Initial attempts made in the CPS and the WFS to collect information of such practical relevance have not been successful. One of the tough challenges facing DHS is to replace discredited lines of inquiry with new approaches that will prove more useful. Improvements can be achieved but many key choices require research of an experimental nature rather than a single survey. Consideration of the contribution of surveys to understanding underlying causes of change leads to negative conclusions due to limitations of single round surveys and implausibility of the dominant theories. Surveys can best serve the search for deeper understanding of demographic trends by continuing to supply reliable and abundant data on the trends themselves. (authors modified) (Summaries in SPA FRE)