Fertility Among Women on Welfare: Incidence and Determinants

Abstract

Longitudinal caseload data of welfare recipients in the United States was used to calculate the fertility rate for women aged 18-44 in an effort to explore the incidence and determinants of fertility among women on welfare. These rates were compared (and standardized) with rates in the general population. A logistic regression analysis models the determinants of childbearing among women on welfare. 3 questions were addressed: what is the likelihood of childbearing among women on welfare; how do these rates compare with those of the general population; and what are the determinants of fertility among welfare recipients. During the 1st observed 6-month interval 1.89% of women on welfare gave birth. During the 6-12 month interval 2.74% gave birth. The percentage giving birth during any 6-month interval was relatively stable at approximately 2%. It was estimated that 4.58% of women will give birth during a 1-year interval. The overall fertility rate for women on welfare thus was 45.8. In addition 11.49% of women will bear children during a 3-year period on welfare. Based on data from the Wisconsin Department of Health and Social Services (1981) and the US Bureau of the Census (1981) the fertility rates in Wisconsin and the national population in 1980 per 1000 women aged 18-44 were 75.3 (Wisconsin) and 71.1 (national population). These rates were considerably higher than the 1-year fertility rate of 45.8 for women on welfare. Women on welfare had a substantially lower fertility rate than women in the general population. The fertility rates of women on welfare continued to be considerably below those of the national and Wisconsin populations when age children marital status race or education were standardized. Thus the lower overall fertility rate among women receiving public assistance programs was not an artifact of a more favorable demographic structure but was clearly lower even when major demographic compositional differences were considered. Several variables significantly affected the likelihood of childbearing among women on welfare: education; race; age; marital status; and length of welfare use. Women with less than 12 years of education were 32% more likely to have a child than women with 12 or more years of education; nonwhites had an 89% greater probability of giving birth than whites. The longer a woman remained on welfare the less likely she was to give birth.