Abstract
In recent decades, Iranian society has experienced rapid socio-economic changes that seriously affect feelings of hope in the future (HF) among social groups, especially in metropolitan areas such as Tehran. This study on HF, which I conducted in 2019, provides a gender analysis of HF for Tehran residents based on selected demographic variables and indicators of socio-economic and psychological insecurities. It also analyzes organizational and public trust by applying the Classification and Regression Trees (CART). I selected the participants from different areas of Tehran: 590 men and 610 women out of a population of 4,839,249 (3,054,715 men and 1,784,534 women) using two-stage stratified sampling with Probability Proportional to Size (PPS), and I completed with them structured questionnaires. The results showed that HF of Tehran residents is correlated with their gender (P-value = 0.033). Thus, two distinct trees with over 60% accuracies were fitted. Three influential variables on men’s HF were age, socio-economic insecurity, and public trust. Young men had higher HF than older ones.
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