Federal-Provincial Voting Patterns in Canada

Abstract

In nearly every recent commentary on Canadian political parties one observation has been repeatedly emphasized. It is that the Canadian electorate has shown an inclination to put in power at the provincial level parties which stand in opposition to the party which has been entrusted with power at Ottawa. The writers who have stressed this phenomenon have been impressed by the fact that during the latter years of their national ascendancy the Liberals were in control of only a few of the smaller provinces (by 1957 only Prince Edward Island, New Rrunswick, and, through a coalition, Manitoba), while in the other and larger provinces the Progressive Conservatives, C.C.F., Social Credit, or Union Nationale were firmly entrenched. From this observation three conclusions, either explicit or implicit, have generally been deduced. The first is that during the latter years of the Liberal régime the real opposition to the Government was not to be found at the Speaker's left in Ottawa, but rather in the provincial capitals. The second is that the individual Canadian voter has alternated his party choice at provincial and federal elections, and by so doing has demonstrated a type of voting behaviour which is not usually to be found in federations. The third conclusion is that in favouring one party provincially and another party nationally the Canadian voter is motivated by a calculated desire to balance the power of the one against the other. The purpose of this article is to examine the pattern of provincial and federal election results and to determine the extent to which these conclusions are supported by the available evidence.