Federalism, development and the changing political dynamics in Ethiopia

Abstract

In the last two and half decades, Ethiopia has undertaken remarkable political and economic changes at the center of which is the transformation of the country from a highly homogenizing and centrist rule to a federal system that aims to manage the country’s complex, politically mobilized ethnonational diversity. Ethiopia continues to register impressive economic performance but at the same time is facing political instability. This article seeks to explain two major paradoxes: Why has the federal system, with its promise of self-rule that ensures autonomous self-government and representation in federal institutions, not been able to ensure political stability, and how does one explain the emerging protests and uncertainties? Two factors explain the puzzle. The idea that development is centrally designed and managed along with the identification of poverty as an existential threat against which all resources have to be mobilized means that development takes an overriding priority thus compromising self-rule. While federalism and the developmental state are two major pillars of the EPRDF-led government, they have not been aligned well, as the latter became an overriding ideology.The outcome as witnessed in the latest protests is new mobilization and conflict unleashed by growing ethnonationalism. The vanguard party that has monopolized political power and overshadowed the institutions also sidelined the political opposition while emboldening hardliners leading to political instability.