Federacja Rosyjska wobec Brexitu – szanse i zagrożenia

Abstract

The subject of my interest is to analyze the most important conditions and dependencies regarding the attitude of the Russian Federation towards Brexit in the political, economic and military dimension. The main purpose of these considerations is an attempt to answer the question of whether Britain’s exit from the European Union may become a chance for Russia to achieve its political, economic and military goals or a threat to its international interests. At the outset, I intend to describe the political dimension of Brexit for Russia, which is related to the attempts of the Kremlin’s government and journalists to find out why the British have made the decision in the referendum. I would also like to present a hypothesis that because of the vote in the UK, Moscow has once again become a major player in the international arena after the annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine, as evidenced by the US–Russian cooperation in resolving the Syrian conflict. In the further part of the text, I address the problem of Russia’s economic situation and the possible implications of Brexit on the functioning of the Russian economy. In addition, I am introducing the military dimension of Brexit for Russia, which is related to the findings of the NATO summit in in July 2016, regarding the strengthening of the Alliance’s forces on the so-called Eastern flank. In summary, I will try to outline whether Brexit may be a long-term opportunity or a threat to Russia, considering its current political, economic and military interests.