Abstract
Numerous studies report shifts in bird migration phenology, presumably owing to global warming. However, most studies focus on migration patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we investigated associations between weather conditions in African wintering grounds of the lesser whitethroat, Sylvia curruca, and spring arrival time in Eilat, Israel. Using multivariate regression models, we analysed a 30-year dataset in order to examine correlations between median springtime arrival and 46 climate variables of the wintering quarters. The model obtained exhibited a highly statistical fit, involving mean precipitation in February and March with negative effects and number of wet days during November–February. February precipitation levels were also the major factor associated with the interquartile range of arrival time. Interestingly and contrary to published results, annual or seasonal precipitation showed no correlation with spring arrival time, nor did temperature. Moreover, winter in this region falls into dry season with negligible rainfall quantities. Hence, it is unlikely that precipitation effect on habitat productivity is a driving force of migration, as suggested by other studies. Instead, we propose that precipitation in February acts as a cue for the birds, indicating the approach of spring and migration time.
Highlights
Changes in bird migration phenology are well established and commonly linked to global warming
We address the question of the effect of climate conditions in African wintering grounds on birds’ arrival time to Eilat, Israel
We studied possible effects of climate conditions at African wintering grounds of S. curruca on their spring arrival time to Eilat, Israel
Summary
Changes in bird migration phenology are well established and commonly linked to global warming. Many migratory bird species have been reported to advance spring arrival at breeding. Other studies revealed delayed arrival, 2 possibly because of winter droughts, which caused shortage of necessary food resources for premigratory fuel deposition [3,5,6,7]. Exact timing of spring arrival at breeding grounds is crucial; birds must arrive early enough to occupy a territory, find a mate and match egg production and hatching with peak food abundance. Too early an arrival may risk survival owing to possible freezing temperatures and lack of food [1,5,8,9]. Arrival is tricky for long-distance migrants in light of the changing climate, as changes are not uniform across different geographical regions [10]
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