Features of the Logic-and-Probabilistic Risk Theory with Groups of Incompatible Events

Abstract

The propositions and characteristics of the logic-and-probabilistic theory of unsuccess risk with groups of incompatible events were presented, as well as examples of unsuccess risk scenarios and logic and probabilistic models. The problem of identification (training) of the risk logic-and-probabilistic model from the statistical data was stated, and a training algorithm was set forth. Statistical, combinatorial, and logic-and-probabilistic methods of risk analysis were described. High precision and robustness of the logic-and-probabilistic models of unsuccess risk were explained, and in terms of these characteristics the models were compared with other theories of risk and classification of objects. The results obtained can be used for modeling, analysis, and management of risks in complex organizational and technical systems.