Features of modern climate changes in the Arctic and their consequences

Abstract

The paper is based on the results reported in an invited speaker presentation at the scientific conference dedicated to the 100th anniversary of AARI in March 2020. The features of present-day rapid climate changes in the Arctic and their consequences are assessed. The presented results include those obtained in the framework of the program of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences "Climate change: causes, risks, consequences, problems of adaptation and regulation" and the Russian-German project QUARCCS (QUAntifying Rapid Climate Change in the Arctic: regional feedbacks and large-scale impacts). An assessment is made of the relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic factors to the formation of temperature trends at different time horizons in the Arctic. In view of the rapid changes of the Arctic climate, the prospects of the Northern Sea route are examined. According to the estimates obtained, the dominant role of radiative forcing is manifested in the Arctic latitudes on time scales of about half a century or more. New climatic phenomena (in particular, the formation of craters in the Yamal Peninsula under the conditions of melting permafrost) and new effects (including the change in the trends of changes in sea waves in the waters of the Arctic basin) indicate the achievement of a certain critical level of regional and global warming, comparable to the warming of the Holocene Climate Optimum. At the same time, modern climate models can not only reproduce the key features of current climatic regimes and their variability, but also provide adequate predictive estimates even for complex processes in the Arctic.