Features of Methods for Assessing the Long-Term Traffic Intensity in the Design of Toll Roads

Abstract

Long-term traffic intensity is among core characteristics that determine main parameters while developing projects for construction of new highways. The long-term traffic intensity influences estimated speed, pavement design, total number of traffic lanes, width of traffic lanes and roadsides, longitudinal slope, radii of horizontal curve, transverse slope, radii of convex and concave curves regarding the longitudinal profile, width of median strip, layout of intersection or junction with other roads.Existing methods for predicting traffic intensity for toll roads are also deterministic and cannot estimate the range of values for the listed indicators. In this regard, the objective of the study is to identify the features, advantages, and disadvantages of existing methods for assessing the long-term traffic intensity for toll roads.The study considered both traditional, classical methods (extrapolation, historical analysis, approximation) and promising innovative approaches based on the theory of fuzzy logic and neural network modelling.