Feature-enhanced deep learning method for electric vehicle charging demand probabilistic forecasting of charging station

Abstract

The fast proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs) profoundly affects the stable operation of the power system. Since EV charging demand is affected by users volatile behaviors and many other environmental and social factors, their uncertainty is quite pronounced. Traditional deterministic forecasting methods which provide little information on the uncertainty may not be informative to the decision-making of power system with massive EVs. This paper proposes a novel feature-enhanced deep learning method (FEDM) for EV charging demand probabilistic forecasting of individual station, in which a two-stage feature selection model is constructed to introduce the Pearson correlation coefficient between charging demand and external features as a prior knowledge to reweight the initial weights. The performance is improved compared to which is without feature-enhanced. In the comparison with eight benchmarks, FEDM shows superiority in both deterministic and probabilistic evaluation metrics. With high computational efficiency, FEDM has low dependence on the historical data stock, which can still achieve good performance in the case of low data volume. It provides a fast and accurate forecasting scheme for the demand forecasting of individual stations under the limitation of low data stock.