Feasibility Study on Modeling of Flight Time Prediction Uncertainty using Flight and Meteorological Conditions

Abstract

A precise flight time uncertainty prediction is expected to enable a more efficient air traffic management. According to an uncertainty propagation equation derived from a physical model, the flight time uncertainty increases as a function of ground speed and the variances of true air speed and head wind speed. These factors also depend on the flight and meteorological conditions. It is expected possible to improve the uncertainty prediction accuracy by appropriately taking these factors into its modeling. Through the clustering analysis of the actual flight and weather forecast data, the feasibility of the flight time uncertainty modeling using the flight speed and weather forecast information is clearly demonstrated.