Feasibility of zero-energy affordable housing

Abstract

The United States needs comprehensive policymaking reforms that promote sustainable residential development. This study investigates the feasibility of statewide, zero-energy affordable housing by analyzing historical data on the climate, energy use, and solar system costs in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The hypothesis examined is the net present cost of implementation of rooftop residential solar systems to achieve zero-energy, multifamily buildings of the U.S. Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program is lower than the discounted present cost of energy of otherwise identical buildings that run without renewable energy generation systems. We propose a generalizable framework for analyzing the feasibility of achieving regionwide or statewide zero-energy affordable housing. To validate the framework, we employ a longitudinal sample of monthly energy use data from 2013 to 2016, obtained from 310 residential units of 15 LIHTC developments across Virginia. Based on statistical regression analysis, energy simulation, and simulation-based risk analysis, we find that the net present value of investments in zero-energy affordable housing can be positive with a low risk. The investment value varies often depending on the zero-energy building definition, weather characteristics, retail price of electricity, and incentive rate. The results suggest that many other southern states can accrue benefits from zero-energy affordable housing.