Feasibility of Using Aeration to Cool Wheat Stored in Slovenia: A Predictive Modeling Approach Using Historical Weather Data

Abstract

The use of aeration, which refers to cooling of a grain mass using low-volume airflow rates with ambient air, is an under-utilized component of management programs. A model simulation study was conducted for the country of Slovenia by examining historical weather data for 10 selected sites to determine if sufficient cooling hours <15 °C were available in August and September to cool stored wheat. The weather data were then coupled with a degree-day model to determine if a generation of Sitophilus oryzae (L.), the rice weevil, could be produced in the absence of aeration, using a start date of 1 August. The weather data for September was used to classify Slovenia into different risk zones, depending on the number hours <15 °C. Three sites from each zone, from warmest to coolest, Portorož, Novo Mesto, and Lesce, were further examined using a web-based aeration model and insect population growth model for S. oryzae developed by Texas A&M University Beaumont TX for cooling stored rough rice, to predict bin temperatures and population growth from 1 August to 30 November. The results show that, for most of Slovenia, in the absence of aeration, a complete generation of S. oryzae could occur based on an infestation beginning 1 August. The use of aeration immediately cooled stored wheat in the three selected sites, resulting in a dramatic decrease in predicted populations of S. oryzae in aerated wheat compared to unaerated wheat. The results show that the use of aeration may be expanded in Slovenia for management of stored commodities, and it could help alleviate dependence on insecticides for insect pest management after harvest.