Feasibility of the Northern Sea Route for seasonal transit navigation: The role of ship speed on ice and alternative fuel types for the oil product tanker market

Abstract

The feasibility of the Northern Sea Route is assessed for seasonal operations of oil product tankers using alternative fuel types. A speed optimisation model is used that minimises the required freight rate (RFR) of a Long Range 2 (LR2) tanker against alternative routes. A cost model is developed that incorporates real hourly speed data from tanker voyages between the 2011 and 2019 summer/autumn seasons, and primary and secondary data regarding cost and operational factors. The analysis is based on naphtha and jet fuel/kerosene trades between Europe and Asia. A prospective ban on the use of High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) in the Arctic, and alternative fuels, such as the new Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) are included to take into account of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) 2020 global sulphur limit and its long-term strategy towards the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.