Fear of Crime and Constrained Behavior Specifying and Estimating a Reciprocal Effects Model

Abstract

To some extent fear of crime is thought to be a social problem because it is assumed to constrain social interaction. However, empirical support for the effects of fear on social behavior is mixed. This may reflect two problems. Extant research does not control for the negative effect of social behavior on fear while estimating the effect of fear on social behavior; and research assumes that the effect of fear on social behavior is the same for all people. Using the NCS dataset and simultaneous equation techniques, we address this issue. The analysis suggests that fear and constrained social behavior are part of a positive escalating loop (fear constrains social behavior which increases fear) and that the strength of the loop is contingent on age. Over the last 15 years fear of crime has emerged as an important research topic. Surveys (Harris, NORC, and NCS) report that a very high percentage of the U.S. population fear criminal victimization (Baumer 1978; Braungart, Braungart & Hoyer 1980; Clemente & Kleiman 1976; Garofalo 1979; Hartnagel 1979; Skogan & Maxfield 1981) and that this percentage has been increasing since the mid 1960s (Stinchcombe et al. 1980). In 1967 the Presidential Commission on Law and Enforcement decried the lack of research; and seven years later Brooks (1974) stated that the situation has not changed. Today we still know very little. Perhaps the most common and consistent findings are those on *This research was supported by a grant from the National Institute on Aging (5ROlAGO4067). Some of the data used in this paper were made available by the InterUniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research. Address correspondence to Allen E. Liska, Department of Sociology, SUNY/Albany, Albany, NY 19222. ? 1988 The University of North Carolina Press