Fear of Anarchy or Fear of a Predatory State?: Using Survey Non-Response to Assess Somali State Legitimacy

Abstract

Which is more frightening for those living in a failed state: a predatory state apparatus or violent anarchy? Rather than try to deduce an answer from first principles, or to attempt to answer this question by soliciting information directly, this paper derives its inferences from a careful examination of survey behaviors – especially non-response and refuse-to-answer patterns. We use a large panel survey of data from respondents living in contemporary Mogadishu to make inferences about underlying Somali state legitimacy using a straightforward Hobbesian metric: comparing fear of anarchy to fear of a new order dominated by the relative winners of a violent war of attrition. Anarchy was more frightening to our most vulnerable respondents than the specter of a strong Somali state.