Fear and Greed: Australian Public Opinion Towards China's Rise*

Abstract

The gradual transformation of Australia's relationship with Asia over the past half century has been accompanied by major shifts in public opinion. These changes have been prompted by numerous changes in the social composition of the electorate, by globalisation which has brought many foreign firms to Australia, and by the political elite's changing approach to engagement with Asia. There is, however, considerable elite anxiety concerning the economic and military rise of China, and these concerns are expressed in public debate and attitudes. Using opinion surveys collected over half a century, the first part of this article examines the trends emerging from debates over Australia's economic and political relationship with China. In the second part, we use the 2018 and 2020 Lowy Polls to explain who changed their views of China and why. The results suggest that the dramatic shift in attitudes towards China between 2018 and 2020 was mainly driven by concerns about foreign influence in Australian politics. Overall, public opinion towards China has become more polarised, between economic opportunity on the one hand and fear of an authoritarian neighbour on the other.