FDI outflow from China to EU countries – exploring alternative futures for Chinese investments in European digital platforms

Abstract

The purpose of the chapter is to highlight key long-term policy dilemmas concerning the Chinese investments in European technology platforms by using scenario planning approach. The investments in digital companies are particularly important because of their platform-based business models allow them to benefit from increasing market concentration by relying on network effects, lock-ins, and information asymmetries. The platform-type business models are increasingly reproduced in different sectors ranging from energy to transport. Hence, it is vital to consider potential future of trajectories for Chinese foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the European platforms on the basis of scenario planning. This approach allows to consider alternative future trajectories rather than rely on the extrapolation of current trends and linear forecasts. The application of four scenarios developed by high-level experts from national as well as international organisations allows us to underline key trade-offs for policy-makers focusing around the ability of European Union (EU) to strengthen strategic cooperation among the member states and to increase investments in both digital and physical infrastructures.