FDI and economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between FDI and economic growth. Two models have been used to analyse the time series data on Pakistan from 1970 to 2012. This paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the different empirical methods to estimate the relationship between FDI and economic growth. The vector error correction model (VECM) results suggest that FDI depends on the economic growth but this relationship is not true vice versa. The second model showed that FDI, human capital and exports are important factors of economic growth. However, the negative relationship between interactive variables (FDI and human capital) and economic growth indicates that low level of human capital affect the economic growth of Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach – Used time series data (1970-2012) for empirical analysis. Findings – The VECM results suggest that FDI depends on the economic growth but this relationship is not true vice versa. The second model showed that FDI, human capital and exports are important factors of economic growth. However, the negative relationship between interactive variables (FDI and human capital) and economic growth indicates that low level of human capital affect the economic growth of Pakistan. Research limitations/implications – The limitations of this empirical paper are as follows: it would be better to use secondary school enrolment (per cent) to measure human capital instead adult literacy rate. Similarly, the non-availability of R & D data on Pakistan limited the scope of the paper to measure the role of absorptive capacity of domestic and its relationship with FDI. The results of this paper are specifically related to Pakistan and cannot be generalized to other countries. Practical implications – This empirical study implies that Pakistan should improve its economic growth. The robust policies are required to increase the literacy rate of the country. Higher human capital will attract more FDI into the economy and may reduce the unemployment. This would increase the national output of the country and their national income level. Presently, Pakistan is going through war on terror and foreign firms are reluctant to invest. A stable and secure business environment will ultimately inject foreign direct investment into Pakistan. Originality/value – This paper is first time analyse the time series data to explore the relationship between FDI and economic growth. A new approach has been used called VECM.