Abstract
In order to estimate the prior probability of the link failure,the paper proposed a new method for estimating the link state distribution.The new scheme adopted the factor graph to describe the joint probability distribution between the link and the path,and used the sum-product algorithm to obtain the maximum posterior estimate of the state of the link,then used the failures probability of the link and the current measurement data to conclude the current state of the link.The simulation results show that,when the size of network reaches 400 nodes,the computation time of the new scheme is more than two orders of magnitude lower than the linear equations method,and has better scalability.
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