Faultlines of conflict in Central Asia and the south Caucasus: implications for the U.S. Army

Abstract

Abstract : This report is the final product of a project entitled Sources of Conflict in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The project was intended to help Army intelligence analysts improve their understanding of the potential for armed conflict in the region of Central Asia and South Caucasus and how such outbreaks might escalate to a level that could involve US forces. This report identifies and evaluates the key conflict-producing fault-lines in Central Asia and South Caucasus. The faultlines include the role of state political and economic weakness; the impact of crime and the drug trade; the effects of ethnic tensions and foreign interests and influence; and the impact of competition for natural resources. The analysis then examines the ways in which the emergence of conflict could draw the United States into the strife. The report also examines the operational challenges the region poses for possible Army deployments in the 10- to 15-year time frame This research was completed largely prior to the September 11 attacks on the United States The report has been updated to take into account the changed security environment and the US military presence on the ground in the Central Asian and South Caucasus region The operations in Afghanistan have not altered the faultlines. They are long-term and structural in nature The current US presence on the ground means that they need to be taken into account even more than previously.