Abstract
We consider the intersection between two striking U.S. trends: dramatic increases in the imprisonment of fathers and increases in the proportion of mothers who have children with more than one partner (multiple-partner fertility, or MPF). Using matched longitudinal administrative data that provide unusually comprehensive and accurate information about the occurrence and timing of imprisonment, fertility, and MPF for the population of the state of Wisconsin, we consider the relationship between paternal imprisonment and MPF among unwed mothers. Employing discrete-time event history analysis with multinomial logistic regression, we model the occurrence and timing of the mother’s second birth, distinguishing between a birth with the same father and a birth with a different father, and distinguishing between current imprisonment and a history of imprisonment. We find that current imprisonment is associated with an increased likelihood of MPF and a decreased likelihood of fertility with the same father (compared with no additional birth) and that a history of imprisonment is associated with increased MPF in some models but not in our preferred model. To control for unobserved heterogeneity among mothers and assess the evidence of a causal effect of fathers’ imprisonment, we also employ the case-time-control method, a fixed-effects method for the analysis of nonrepeated events. Results suggest that fathers’ current imprisonment may increase mothers’ MPF. Policy implications are discussed.
Highlights
We consider the intersection between two striking U.S trends: dramatic increases in the imprisonment of fathers and increases in the proportion of mothers who have children with more than one partner
We found some evidence that father’s current imprisonment decreases the likelihood of an additional birth with the same father
We find that experiencing imprisonment since the focal child was born is not related to MPF after the incapacitation effect of current imprisonment is considered
Summary
We consider the intersection between two striking U.S trends: dramatic increases in the imprisonment of fathers and increases in the proportion of mothers who have children with more than one partner (multiple-partner fertility, or MPF). Some evidence suggests that the rate of MPF has increased over time (Guzzo 2014; Monte 2011b), it may have begun to level off recently (Cancian et al 2013). In 2007, 2.3 % of all children in the United States were estimated to have a currently imprisoned parent (Glaze and Maruschak 2010) Exploring this trend among nonmarital children, Chung (2011) estimated that at the time of their fifth birthday, approximately 6 % of nonmarital children in Wisconsin had an imprisoned father, and 15 % had experienced paternal imprisonment. National estimates have suggested that the number of children under age 18 who currently have an imprisoned parent increased by 79 % between 1991 and midyear 2007 (Glaze and Maruschak 2010)
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