Fatalities by traffic in Maryland and Massachusetts evaluated in the context of a probabilistic random walk.

Abstract

Introduction: The analysis of injuries caused by traffic from a physical and mathematical perspective can help improve road safety strategies. Objective: Predict the dynamics of traffic fatalities in the states of Maryland and Massachusetts for the years 2004 and 2014 in the context of probabilistic random walk. Methods: An analysis was made of the number of total fatalities caused by traffic per year, in the states of Maryland and Massachusetts between the years 1994-2003 and 1994-2013. The behavior of these values was analyzed as a probabilistic random walk; for this, the probabilistic lengths were found for each year, during the period studied and four probability spaces were analyzed, with which it was possible to analyze their behavior, to establish a prediction of the number of total fatalities caused by traffic for the years 2004 and 2014. Results: The predictions for the years 2014 and 2004 for Maryland and Massachusetts when compared with the real values, the percentage of success was 98%. Main conclusion: The predictions for the years 2014 and 2004 for Maryland and Massachusetts when compared with the real values, the percentage of success was 98%. Conclusions: the behavior of traffic fatalities in Maryland and Massachusetts presented a predictable self-organization from the context of probabilistic random walk, constituting a useful tool for analyzing the operation of road safety strategies.