Abstract
Recent data raise the possibility that runway collisions at towered US airports could kill 700–800 people and seriously injure 200 others over the years 2003–2022. This projection—which is mid-range rather than best or worst case—arises from historical records about fatal runway collisions, from airport-specific traffic growth forecasts, from analyses of weather hazards, and from a review of all 292 US runway incursions in 1997. Such a “status quo” forecast could be pessimistic because it does not consider the benefits of various initiatives—technological and otherwise—that aim to prevent runway collisions.
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