Fatal accident rates for instrument-rated private pilots.

Abstract

The fatality rate for general aviation, 82 times that of air carriers and even higher for those involving aeromedical transportation, has not declined over time. Although noncommercial (private) pilots are increasingly seeking the instrument rating (IFR), which offers safety advantages, there is a paucity of research on causes of fatal crashes for this aviator subset. The NTSB accident database was queried for general aviation fatal accidents involving private pilots. Exact two sample proportions, linear regression model outcomes (log-odds), and Poisson rate ratio tests were used for statistical analysis. The fatal accident rate for flights in instrument conditions decreased 55% over 10 yr (2002-2011) although an increased fatality rate was evident for pilots > 65 yr of age. Instrument approach deficiency (lAD), spatial disorientation/failure to maintain control (SD/FMC), and failure to maintain obstacle/terrain clearance (FMOTC) were common causes of fatal accidents in reduced visibility. However a > 55% decline in fatal accidents due to IAD was evident over the decade. Under visual conditions, engine/air-frame malfunction, aerodynamic stall, and FMOTC represented frequent causes. Of these, FMOTC showed a statistically significant decline over 10 yr. Comparing day and night operations, fatal crashes attributed to FMOTC and IAD were more frequent at night. For the IFR-rated private pilot, our study argues for an emphasis on training and currency in SD/FMC and aerodynamic stall recovery. Likewise training to remedy IAD, the frequent cause of fatal night accidents, and flying by instrument flight rules to assure obstacle/terrain clearance should be encouraged for pilots undertaking such operations.