Fast‐tracking sustainable economic growth and development in Nigeria through international migration and remittances

The Study x-rayed diaspora remittance, the Nigerian financial system and sustainable economic development in Nigeria. The study used remittance inflows as measure of Diaspora Remittance and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a measure of sustainable economic development. The study examined the absorptive capacity of the Nigerian financial system to mobilize diapora remittance and transform same into sustainable economic growth and development. Content Analysis (CA) technique was deployed to analyse and examine the data collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletins for various years, Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the World Bank Development Indicators data base from 1987 to 2020. The data are comprised of the values of diaspora remittance, Gross Domestic product (GDP) and Official development Assistance (ODA). The analysis of the data revealed that the Nigerian financial system mobilized millions and billions of US dollars in remittance into the economy for the period which span thirty fours years with diaspora remittance reaching its peak of twenty six billion, eight hundred and ninety one million, nine hundred and eighty thousand two hundred dollars in 2011. Between 2011 and 2020, the Nigerian financial system raked in an average of twenty five billion US dollars in remittance inflows into the economy. Following from the foregoing findings, the study recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) being the monetary and regulatory authority of the banking system, should formulate policies that would further encourage the inflow of Diaspora remittance through the banking system such that diaspora remittances are well utilized to boost employment generation in order to engender sustainable economic growth and development.

This paper examined the impact of public debt on economic growth in Nigeria from 1990 to 2023. The objectives are to determine the impact of domestic debt, external debt and public debt service payments on gross domestic product (GDP) in Nigeria. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test indicates that the variables are stationary at levels, I(0) and at order one, I(1). The study applied the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to secondary data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and Debt Management Office (DMO). The ARDL bounds test to cointegration indicates existence of a long-run relationship among the variables which led to estimation of both short-run and long-run results. Findings reveal that domestic debt and external debt made negative and insignificant impact on GDP whereas public debt service payments made positive and significant impact on GDP in both the short-run and the long-run. Control variables of gross fixed capital formation, total labour force participation rate and inflation rate produced mixed results in both periods. This suggests that Nigeria’s reliance on public debt-both domestic and external borrowings has been detrimental to its economic performance, primarily due to mismanagement of borrowed funds. The paper recommends that public debt should be productively utilized, there should be reforms in debt management to ensure efficient allocation of borrowed funds to productive sectors, and a reduction in reliance on external financing to achieve sustainable economic growth and development.

ABSTRACT: This study investigates the relationship between the insurance sector's development and Nigeria's economic growth from 2000 to 2023. It focuses on key economic indicators like GDP, insurance premium, claims, investments, and inflation rate, seeking to understand how the growth of the insurance industry impacts the country's overall economic performance. The study employs a quantitative research approach, utilizing secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics, and the National Insurance Commission. Key variables include Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Total Insurance Premium, Total Insurance Claim, Total Insurance Investment, and Inflation Rate. Statistical techniques such as descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, unit root tests, co-integration analysis, and Error Correction Models (ECM) are used to analyze the relationships and long-term dynamics between these variables, covering the period from 2000 to 2023. The study reveals a significant positive relationship between Total Insurance Premium and Investment with GDP growth, indicating that the insurance sector's development promotes economic growth by mobilizing savings and channeling funds into productive investments. However, there is no significant relationship between Total Insurance Claims and GDP growth, suggesting further investigation is needed. A negative correlation between Inflation Rate and GDP growth emphasizes the detrimental effects of inflation on economic performance. The research also identifies the need for more robust mechanisms to enhance insurance sector operations, improve data collection, and address inflation's impact on economic stability. Policymakers should implement measures to support the growth of the insurance sector, enhance regulatory frameworks, and foster innovation in insurance products. Stabilizing inflation should be prioritized through sound monetary policies to ensure sustained economic growth. Further research into the role of insurance claims in economic development is recommended. Strengthening data collection processes will improve decision-making and foster evidence-based policies to leverage the insurance sector for long-term economic stability and growth in Nigeria.

The gridded spatial distribution data of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has a wide range of application values in many fields, such as regional economic analysis, urban planning, sustainable utilization of resources, and disaster risk assessment. However, currently the publicly accessible GDP grid datasets face limitations in terms of temporal coverage, spatial extent, and accuracy. Therefore, based on the remote sensing data of land use and nighttime light, this study developed two methods: the factor averaging method (FAM) and grid averaging method (GAM), and used Random Forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms to jointly construct the spatial model of GDP, so as to produce China’s 1 km gridded GDP in 2020. The experimental results show the following: (1) The GAM yields higher R2 values than the FAM in modeling the three industries, and therefore, it is adopted as the basis for GDP spatialization modeling. (2) XGBoost achieves higher R2 values than RF in modeling primary and secondary industries, but lower R2 values in modeling tertiary industry. Consequently, both methods are combined to construct the overall GDP spatialization model. (3) The accuracy of the GDP spatialization results is evaluated based on town-level GDP statistics, with an R2 value of 0.78, indicating its reliable predictive capability. (4) Compared with publicly available GDP datasets, our dataset exhibits consistent spatial distribution patterns and aggregation trends. Furthermore, our GDP dataset provides a more detailed depiction of variations within county-level administrative units. Therefore, the method proposed in this study offers a valuable option for generating a gridded GDP dataset, visually displaying the uneven economic development across various regions in China. It helps to uncover economic disparities among regions and provides data support for formulating differentiated support policies, so as to promote balanced regional development among regions. Furthermore, it contributes to promoting sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth (SDG 8) and reducing inequalities within and among countries (SDG 10), thereby providing strong support for urban planning and sustainable development.

This study investigates the impact of agriculture, industry, and the service sector on Nigeria's economic growth from 1990 to 2022, using data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. Employing an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model, the research explores the contributions of these key sectors to Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The findings reveal that the industrial sector has a significant positive effect on GDP, emphasizing its crucial role in driving economic growth. The agricultural sector also contributes positively, though its impact is relatively modest, highlighting the need for modernization and investment to enhance productivity. Surprisingly, the service sector shows a statistically significant negative impact on GDP, contrary to its traditionally recognized role in economic expansion. This anomaly suggests underlying structural issues within the sector that require further investigation. The study's model explains approximately 59.65% of the variation in GDP, with no significant evidence of autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, or multicollinearity affecting the results. Based on these findings, the study recommends targeted policy interventions to improve agricultural productivity, strengthen industrialization efforts, and reform the service sector to foster balanced and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

Money market instruments play a crucial role in the growth and development of the Nigerian economy. Still, it is not yet vibrant and constrained by the absence of sub-markets and availability of adequate credit instruments required for the smooth operations of the market. The study examine the impact of money market instruments (Treasury bill, Treasury certificates, Certificate of Deposits, Banker’s Acceptances, Development Stock and Commercial Papers) on Economic growth based on secondary data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publications for 30 years. The study employed statistical techniques such as ADF, Unit Root Test, OLS, multiple-regression and Granger Causality Test to analysis data collected for the study covering the period 1990-2020. The study observed that Bank acceptance and Commercial paper granger cause Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Treasury bill, Treasury certificate and commercial papers have a positive relationship with GDP, but its effect is insignificant in the long run. But banker’s acceptance and certificate of deposits has a positive and significant effect on GDP in the long run. In contrast, development stock has no significant effect on GDP in the short and the long run with no granger causal relationship with GDP. The study therefore recommends that Nigerian money market should be reformed in line with the current globalization trend and internationalization of the money market to allow a flow of foreign investment into the economy and also increase the number of tradable instruments in the market.

The study examined appraisal of shipping trade influence on the economic growth in Nigeria from 1981-2016 by the use of secondary data collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria. The main objectives are to examine the trend of shipping trade in Nigeria as well as determine the influence of economic growth on gross domestic product (GDP). The study employed both descriptive and influential tools. The study adopted cointegration regression method for the analysis of each of the variables (shipping trade, external reserves and external debts). The results show that there is a statistically significant relationship between GDP and external reserves with p-value 0.0190. Also the result revealed that there is a statistically significant relationship between GDP and shipping trade with p-value 0.000. However, shipping trade and external reserves contributed positively at 1% and 5% level of significance respectively while external debts impacted negatively to GDP at 5% level of significance with a long run variance of cointegration regression. Therefore, the study suggests that government should do all it can to curtail foreign dominance and repatriation of profit for a more sustainable economy as well as upgrade port facilities, prevent unnecessary delays and encourage exportable goods for maximum deployment of ships. Keywords : External debts, External reserve, GDP and Shipping trade. DOI : 10.7176/CER/12-1-04 Publication date: January 31 st 2020

Government transfer payments play a critical role in Nigeria's fiscal strategy, functioning as instruments for poverty alleviation, economic stabilization, and inclusive growth. In a context where over 63% of the population approximately 133 million people live in multidimensional poverty (National Bureau of Statistics, 2023), transfers such as cash payments, pensions, and other social benefits are essential for supporting vulnerable households and sustaining consumption. This study examines the relationship between government transfer payments and economic growth in Nigeria using secondary data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and other official records. Employing econometric modelling, the analysis investigates how variations in transfer expenditures influence Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and inflation. The findings reveal a significant positive effect of government transfer payments on economic growth in the short term, primarily through enhanced household consumption and increased aggregate demand. Programmes such as direct cash transfers and pension schemes were found to stimulate economic activity. However, the long-term effects are more complex, with concerns about inflationary tendencies, fiscal sustainability, and inefficiencies in distribution mechanisms that limit the full benefits of these transfers. Bureaucratic constraints and weak targeting systems further reduce their developmental impact. The study recommends strengthening transparency, improving targeting mechanisms, and adopting technology-driven distribution systems to minimize leakages and ensure efficient allocation. Enhancing administrative efficiency and accountability will help maximize the growth-inducing potential of government transfer payments while ensuring that fiscal resources achieve their intended developmental objectives. Keywords: Economic growth, Employment rate, Government transfer payments, Gross Domestic Product, Inflation levels

Sustainable economic growth and development may practically be impossible if the indices of growth are not given the required attention that will translate into an enviable sustainability of the fabrics of growth in Nigeria. This has become important given the decline in micro, small and medium enterprise subsector in Nigeria. The essence of this research is thus, to empirically examine the impact of micro, small and medium enterprises on sustainable economic development in Nigeria. The study covered from 2000 to 2020 and annual time series data were sourced from the CBN Statistical Bulletin, World Development Indicator (WDI) and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The co-integration and ECM frameworks were used. The results showed that the output of micro, small and medium enterprises has a significant and positive impact on the Per Capita Income (PCY), the exchange rate (EXR) has a significant and positive impact on the micro, small and medium enterprises and Prime Lending Rate (PLR) has a negative and insignificant impact on the micro, small and medium enterprises. Thus, from the results, it was recommended, amongst others, the clustering of micro, small and medium enterprises with similar products, to further improve their output and development process vis-a-vis the growth and development of Nigeria.

Aims: This study seeks to explore a two-way relationship between Nigeria’s economic performance, measured by the GDP, and her stock of foreign reserves over time.
 Study Design: It uses secondary data - documented time series of Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign exchange reserves (FER) – collected from various volumes of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The annual time series data cover a period of 38 years, from 1981-2018.
 Methodology: The time series properties of the variables were verified using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit roots’ test procedure. Also, the Bounds test technique was used to test for cointegration while the autoregressive distributed-lag (ARDL) and error correction models were estimated to analyze short- and long-run relationships between the variables. Relevant diagnostic tests were carried out to validate the resultant model estimates.
 Results: Results of unit roots’ test reveal both GDP and foreign reserves as I(1) series. Bounds test for the GDP model revealed an observed F-statistic (.421) that is less than the critical lower bound F-statistic (4.94) at P=.05 and cointegrating relationship was not confirmed. However, Bounds test for the foreign reserves revealed an observed F-statistic (6.445) lager than the critical upper bound F-statistic (5.73) at P=.05 and cointegration was established leading to specification of a long-run error correction model (ECM). Result of ARDL model estimation shows that only one-year-lag of GDP was significant (P=.05) and positive in explaining variations in the current GDP. Previous year’s values of both GDP and foreign reserves have positive influence on the long-run foreign exchange with over 81.8% explanatory power. The adjustment coefficient of the error correction equation is highly significant (P=.001) with the desired negative sign, implying that previous periods’ errors are correctable by adjustments in the subsequent periods, and convergence is attainable. Granger-Causality test result revealed a unidirectional causality that runs from GDP to the external reserves.
 Conclusion: The study establishes a long-run relationship between stock of foreign reserves and economic performance in Nigeria. The finding corroborates the view that a booming economy has the propensity to attract foreign direct investment thereby boosting the stock of the country’s foreign reserves. To attract more FDI in the critical sectors of the Nigerian economy, the government should create enabling and investment-friendly environment, implement policies and programmes capable of amplify ease-of-doing-business, and boost investors’ confidence in the economy.

This study examines the impact of infrastructural development on economic growth in Nigeria from 1999 to 2022, focusing on key sectors including education, health, transportation, information and communication technology (ICT), and energy. The primary objective is to assess both the short-run and long-run contributions of these infrastructure components to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and time-series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), World Development Indicators, and African Infrastructure Development Reports, the study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to confirm variable stationarity and the bounds test to establish co-integration. The findings reveal a significant long-run relationship between infrastructural development and economic growth. In the long run, infrastructure in education, health, ICT, and transport exerted negative effects on GDP, suggesting inefficiencies and delayed returns on investment. Conversely, energy infrastructure—measured by electricity consumption—positively influenced growth. In the short run, only health infrastructure showed a positive contribution, while other sectors had negative or insignificant effects.Excluding energy, the infrastructure sectors have underperformed despite the increased investment, owing to inefficiencies and governance issues, the study suggests. These include improved policy implementation within all sectors, enhanced oversight over various policy implementation bodies, and improved allocation of resources especially in education, health and ICT. Developing energy infrastructure and employing public-private partnerships (PPPs) are key factors in sustainable economic growth as well.

This study examined the causal relationships between inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), domestic savings, and investment in Zimbabwe using Toda-Yamamoto causality tests and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with secondary data spanning from 1990-2022. The Granger causality analysis revealed a bidirectional causal effect between inflation and GDP, indicating that inflation significantly impacts the country's economic growth. Additionally, the analysis showed a unidirectional causal relationship from inflation to domestic savings, suggesting that high and persistent inflation can erode the value of existing savings and discourage individuals from saving. Furthermore, the study found a distinct causal flow from savings to investment, without feedback in the opposite direction, highlighting the crucial role of a robust savings culture in providing the necessary foundation for sustained investment and economic growth. The ARDL approach provided further insights into the dynamic relationships between these variables. In the short run, lagged GDP and current and lagged savings positively influenced GDP, while the second lag of savings had a negative impact, supporting the Carroll-Weil hypothesis that savings typically follow, rather than precede, economic growth in the short run. The analysis also found a positive short-run and long-run relationship between investment and GDP, supporting the view that investment is an important factor of economic growth. The study recommends that the policy makers can leverage the synergies between savings, investment, and inflation management to foster sustained economic growth and development in line with the government development policies. Developing policies to attract savings and reduce the cost of savings, as well as promoting long-term savings over transactional savings, can increase the country's overall savings base.

In our paper, we analyse the long-term stability and impact of remittances and development aid on sustainable economic growth in developing countries. We use two data samples from countries that were recipients of both aid and remittances in the corresponding period. First, unbalanced data from the years 1970 to 2017; that is, how countries appear in the data. Second, balanced data, where we selected the largest possible set of countries for which data exists without gaps from the years 1970–2017. This dataset consists of 57 countries for the period from 1991 to 2017. Using linear regression models, we conclude that up until the end of the 1980s, the size of aid as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) was larger than the share of remittances. After that, the situation changed and the shares of both inflows were broadly similar. The inflow of remittances was more stable than the inflow of aid and development aid did not (on the contrary to remittances) contribute positively to sustainable economic growth if we consider the entire period between 1970 and 2017. Our results suggest that a statistically significant relationship between development aid and economic growth (per capita) may be observed only in the period from 1990 to 1999. Economic growth in developing countries is negatively influenced by the uncertainty related to the flows of official development assistance (ODA) and aid in all investigated decades. In the case of the remittance flows, the increased volatility tends to contribute negatively to sustainable economic growth only when the remittance flows represent a relatively higher share of GDP.

The significance of agricultural financing for sustainable agricultural and financial improvement in emerging economy like Nigeria cannot be over emphasized. This re-search work analyzed the impact of rural financing on financial sustainability in Nigeria. The dataset is time series information variables spreading a 40 year period, from 1981 to 2020. Annual aggregates data on capital expenditure, agricultural credit, ex-port loans, and gross domestic product (GDP) were sourced from the distributions of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The research was conducted in 2023 and data sets were analyzed using Unit Root test, Cointegration test, and error correction model. Results revealed that agricultural credit, export financing, and capital expenditure affect GDP positively in Nigeria. Therefore, there is need for policy formulation and implementation on arrangement of satisfactory funding facilities to agricultural production and export sector with moderate interest rates at a minimal cost of capital. Government should also embark on massive infra-structural development in order to enhance sustainable financial growth and development.

This study critically examined the nexus between macroeconomic dynamics, bank-specific factors and deposit mobilization of the Nigerian banking sector. Macroeconomic dynamics was proxied by inflation rate, lending rate, exchange rate, government expenditure, unemployment rate and Gross domestic product (GDP) while bank-specific factors was proxied by deposit interest rate, branch network expansion and bank’s liquidity. The study which is ex-post facto, relied mostly on secondary data which were collected through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) statistical bulletin from 1985-2018. Multiple regression Ordinary Least Square (OLS) statistical tool was applied to establish the like fit to the observed data and the degree of relationship that exist between variables. The granger causality test was employed to establish the causal relationship between the variables. Findings revealed among others that inflation rate measured by the consumer price index and deposit interest rate have negative and significant relationship with deposit mobilization in Nigeria. Exchange rate, unemployment rate and loan-to deposit ratio have negative and insignificant relationship. Lending rate and Government expenditure have insignificant positive relationship while it was only Gross domestic product and number of bank branches that have positive and significant relationship with deposit mobilization in Nigeria. It was recommended among others that deposit interest rate should be fixed based on the level of customer’s deposit so as to act as compensation against the rising trend in inflation rate and also, banks should be more socially responsive by partnering with the Government and other private sectors in sponsoring various entrepreneurship and skill acquisition training programmes in the country that are employment driven. This will ensure that a good number of the unemployed persons are into paid employment and are earning. This will in turn boost their deposit base.