Abstract
A semi-analytic probabilistic procedure is presented that enables a fast prediction of the stochastic distribution of buckling load of cylindrical shells caused by the scattering of geometry, wall-thickness, material properties and loading imperfection. Compared to Monte Carlo simulations the semi-analytic method requires significantly fewer buckling load calculations giving equally accurate results. Knowing the distribution function of buckling load, a level of reliability is chosen and a design load is defined, which is lower than all test results and less conservative than NASA SP-8007.
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