Abstract

Abstract. Identification of unknown parameters on the basis of partial and noisy data is a challenging task, in particular in high dimensional and non-linear settings. Gaussian approximations to the problem, such as ensemble Kalman inversion, tend to be robust and computationally cheap and often produce astonishingly accurate estimations despite the simplifying underlying assumptions. Yet there is a lot of room for improvement, specifically regarding a correct approximation of a non-Gaussian posterior distribution. The tempered ensemble transform particle filter is an adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method, whereby resampling is based on optimal transport mapping. Unlike ensemble Kalman inversion, it does not require any assumptions regarding the posterior distribution and hence has shown to provide promising results for non-linear non-Gaussian inverse problems. However, the improved accuracy comes with the price of much higher computational complexity, and the method is not as robust as ensemble Kalman inversion in high dimensional problems. In this work, we add an entropy-inspired regularisation factor to the underlying optimal transport problem that allows the high computational cost to be considerably reduced via Sinkhorn iterations. Further, the robustness of the method is increased via an ensemble Kalman inversion proposal step before each update of the samples, which is also referred to as a hybrid approach. The promising performance of the introduced method is numerically verified by testing it on a steady-state single-phase Darcy flow model with two different permeability configurations. The results are compared to the output of ensemble Kalman inversion, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods results are computed as a benchmark.

Highlights

  • If a solution of a considered partial differential equation (PDE) is highly sensitive to its parameters, accurate estimation of the parameters and their uncertainties is essential to obtain a correct approximation of the solution

  • A so-called tempered ensemble transform particle filter (TETPF) was proposed by Ruchi et al (2019). Note that this ansatz does not require any distributional assumption for the posterior, and it was shown by Ruchi et al (2019) that the TETPF provides encouraging results for non-linear high dimensional PDE-constrained inverse problems

  • The computational complexity of the adaptive tempering Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) with optimal transport resampling (TETPF) is O[T (MC + M3 log M + τmaxMC)], where T is the number of tempering iterations, τmax is the number of pcn-Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inner iterations and C is the computational cost of a forward model G

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Summary

Introduction

If a solution of a considered partial differential equation (PDE) is highly sensitive to its parameters, accurate estimation of the parameters and their uncertainties is essential to obtain a correct approximation of the solution. Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are different approaches to approximate the posterior with an ensemble of samples by computing their probability (e.g, Vergé et al, 2015). Ensemble Kalman inversion (EKI) approximates primarily the first two moments of the posterior, which makes it computationally attractive for estimating high dimensional parameters (Iglesias et al, 2014). A so-called tempered ensemble transform particle filter (TETPF) was proposed by Ruchi et al (2019) Note that this ansatz does not require any distributional assumption for the posterior, and it was shown by Ruchi et al (2019) that the TETPF provides encouraging results for non-linear high dimensional PDE-constrained inverse problems.

Bayesian inverse problem
Tempered Sequential Monte Carlo
Mutation
Resampling phase
Optimal transformation
Sinkhorn approximation
Ensemble Kalman inversion
Hybrid
Parameterisation of permeability
Observations
Metrics
Application to F1 inference
Application to F2 inference
Conclusions
Full Text
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