Fast Ensemble Forecast of Storm Surge along the Coast of China

Abstract

ABSTRACT Ding, X. L.; Chen, Y. P.; Pan, Y., and Reeve, D., 2016. Fast Ensemble Forecast of Storm Surge along the Coast of China. In: Vila-Concejo, A.; Bruce, E.; Kennedy, D.M., and McCarroll, R.J. (eds.), Proceedings of the 14th International Coastal Symposium (Sydney, Australia). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue, No. 75, pp. 1077–1081. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The uncertainties in typhoon wind field forecasts may introduce significant errors in storm surge forecasts. The common method to tackle this problem is based on ensemble forecasting of a typhoon wind field by using different initial and/or boundary conditions in the adopted weather forecast model. However, this method demands very high computational costs and therefore may not always be acceptable for operational use. In order to improve time efficiency, this paper introduces a new method which mainly relies on the forecast results from different weather forecast centres. With the bias modification, the control typhoon fo...