FAST-CA: Fusion-based Adaptive Spatial–Temporal Learning with Coupled Attention for airport network delay propagation prediction

Abstract

The issue of delay propagation prediction in airport networks has garnered increasing global attention, particularly due to its profound impact on operational efficiency and passenger satisfaction in modern air transportation systems. Despite research advancements in this domain, existing methodologies often fall short of comprehensively addressing the challenges associated with predicting delay propagation in airport networks, especially in terms of handling complex spatial–temporal dependencies and sequence couplings. In response to the complex challenge of predicting delay propagation in airport networks, we introduce the Fusion-based Adaptive Spatial–Temporal Learning with Coupled Attention (FAST-CA) framework. FAST-CA is an innovative model that integrates dynamic and adaptive graph learning, coupled attention mechanisms, periodicity feature extraction, and multifaceted information fusion modules. This holistic approach enables a thorough analysis of the interplay between flight departure and arrival delays and the spatial–temporal correlations within airport networks. Rigorously evaluated on two extensive real-world datasets, our model consistently outperforms current state-of-the-art baseline models, showcasing superior predictive performance and the effective learning capabilities of its intricately designed modules. Our research highlights the criticality of analyzing spatial–temporal relationships and the dynamics of flight coupling, offering significant theoretical and practical contributions to the advancement and management of air transportation systems.