Fast and Precise Generic Model for Position-Based Trajectory Prediction of Inland Waterway Vessels

Abstract

Vessel motion simulation as well as model-based accurate trajectory prediction of vessels require accurate models with respect to related dynamic properties. The ability to predict vessel’s trajectory behaviors will become relevant in the case of future autonomous navigation of vessels to predict the behavior of others. The definition of models or parameters can be realized via first principles or by using experimental modeling methods leading to a time invariant or variant model. Existing hydrodynamical modeling approaches are based on mathematical approaches, which use parameters like mass, hydrodynamic forces, wind velocity, depth under the keel, loading parameters, etc. So, determining a dynamic vessel’s model is a complex task, since the model is vessel-specific. For collision avoidance of autonomous or assisted vessels, the trajectory prediction of encountering other vessels is especially required. It is not possible to use complex hydrodynamical models of encountering vessels online due to missing required information/measurements. Even existing deep learning approaches provide better predictions, but are still insufficient for collision avoidance in the case of strong dynamical changes, since the considered input sequences are long. Due to long input sequences, the model does not adapt to strong dynamical changes. In this work, a simple parameter-based approach is developed to predict the intended behavior using the last seconds of the measured position variables. The idea is to globally identify the model parameters of the vessel, which remains constant for the situation, and additionally two parameters for local adaptation, which adapt at every updated input sequence. Typically parameters like rudder angle, wind velocities, and water current affect the behavior of vessels. The introduced approach works with a sliding window approach for which, after identification of the global system, local values are identified based on the last 80 measurements of the vessels. A trajectory prediction (assuming no additional rudder-based maneuvering) is realized for the prediction horizon of 180 s. To confirm the robustness of the new approach, real AIS/GPS-based measurements from a German research inland vessel for different scenarios and sailing conditions including ‘loaded’ and ‘empty’ sailing cases are used. Furthermore, additional results are shown for position data information of different sample rates.