Farmers’ understanding of climate change in Nepal Himalayas: important determinants and implications for developing adaptation strategies

Abstract

Climate change affects the livelihood of farmers in a variety of ways. Farmers’ indigenous knowledge influences their perception of climate-related issues. A perception-based, semi-structured questionnaire survey of 530 households was performed to gather information about the awareness of, indicators for, and determinants of climate change. The survey covered three ecological regions of Nepal. The statistical analysis was done with a chi-square (χ2) test and a binary logistic regression (BLR) model to screen farmers’ perception of climate change. This study shows that socio-economic and agricultural characteristics of the farmers directly influence their perception of climate change. Farmers have identified climate change indicators in various forms, e.g., an increase in temperature (99.2% of those surveyed), a decrease in precipitation (98.9%), and an increase in climate-induced diseases and pests (96.8%) for agricultural crops. Observed precipitation (− 16.093 mm/year; p = 0.055) and temperature (0.0539 °C/year; p = 0.007) between 2000 and 2015 are both consistent with farmers’ perception. The selected independent variables are significantly correlated with the dependent variables, as confirmed by the BLR model, where χ2 = 83 with p = 0.002. The BLR shows there is a strong relationship between farmers’ perception of climate change and the group of descriptive variables, with a coefficient of determination of 85%. The biophysical characteristics and impact variables were the most important determinants. It is important that organizations and policymakers in Nepal develop adaptation strategies that improve the livelihoods of farmers. These strategies include introducing drought-tolerant crops, developing disease- and pest-tolerant seeds, constructing irrigation systems, and building hospitals.