Farmers' perceptions of drought-severity and the impacts on ex-ante and ex-post adaptations to droughts: Evidence from maize farmers in China

Abstract

This study examines the impacts of farmers' drought-severity perceptions on two adaptation strategies—ex-ante use of drought-tolerant varieties and ex-post irrigation use—employing a large-scale survey data of maize farmers in northern China. The former is helpful for saving water while the latter may increase the intensity of water use in drought season. An endogenous switching probit model is employed to account for the potential selection bias and endogeneity of farmers' drought-severity perceptions in regressions of adaptation strategies. The results show that perceiving increasing drought-severity might increase farmers’ probabilities of using drought-tolerant varieties (DTVs) by 8.1% on maize plots but lower the probability of irrigation by 15.1%. However, once the use of the DTVs is controlled for, the perception of drought-severity has no additional predictive powers for irrigation. Furthermore, the use of drought-tolerant varieties may reduce the probability of irrigation by 27.5%. The findings highlight the need for policymakers to enhance farmers’ perceptions and differentiate adaptation options and consider their interrelationships in allocating resources to maximise their effectiveness.