Farmers’ perceptions and role of institutional arrangements in climate change adaptation: Insights from rainfed Pakistan

Nasir Mahmood,Muhammad Arshad,Yasir Mehmood,Muhammad Faisal Shahzad,Harald Kächele

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2021.100288

Abstract

Rainfed farmers are among the most vulnerable farming communities to climate change in Pakistan because of the heavy reliance of crop farming on rain and of farmers’ livelihoods on crop farming. The best and most timely responses against climate change are suitable adaptation measures. Accurately perceiving the risks associated with climate change is an essential factor for planning and then implementing adaptations. Using farm household-level data of 400 rainfed farmers collected through a well-designed and field-tested questionnaire, this study examines the association between various adaptation stages (climate risk perceptions, adaptation planning, and implementation of adaptation) and their determinants using a multivariate probit (MVP) model. The findings indicate that farmers’ perceptions of climatic changes are in line with historical climatic data. Climate risk management (CRM) trainings and digital agriculture extension and communication (DAEC) services (indicators of formal institutional arrangements) show a highly significant impact on all adaptation stages. Input market distance, farmer cooperative meetings (an indicator of informal institutional arrangement), off-farm income, education, and number of male family members are among the other key determinants. A highly significant association between various adaptation stages indicates that accurate climate risk perceptions lead to planning and implementation of adaptations. When risk perceptions are underestimated or lacking, then adaptations do not occur. The results further indicate that the timely availability of reliable information on advanced agricultural inputs, weather parameters, crop farming advisory services, and market information could help rainfed farmers devise sound adaptations to minimize risks associated with climate change. The study recommends the provision of CRM trainings and DAEC services to provide a better understanding and promote sound adaptation planning through the adaptive capacity enhancement of rainfed farming communities for sustainable production and livelihood security.

Highlights

Climate change is affecting the globe in various ways, including rising temperatures, droughts, heatwaves, melting snow, rising sea levels, and flooding
Using farm household-level data of 400 rainfed farmers collected through a well-designed and field-tested questionnaire, this study examines the associa tion between various adaptation stages and their determinants using a multivariate probit (MVP) model
The variable ‘female family members’ did not appear to affect any adaptation stage, which means that farmers with more male family members are more likely to plan an adaptation against climate change and execute an adaptation to minimize the risks associated with climate change, which is totally in accordance with the fact that crop farming in rainfed areas and in Pakistan is generally headed by male family members (Mahmood et al, 2019)

Summary

Introduction

Climate change is affecting the globe in various ways, including rising temperatures, droughts, heatwaves, melting snow, rising sea levels, and flooding. The impacts are more severe in developing regions of the world, including Asian and African countries. Certain developed regions might benefit from the rise in temperatures, including Russia, Canada, and Scandinavia. The situation could be reversed if the temperature continues to rise in these regions, which would lead to other climatic extremes, including floods and droughts. Crop farming is under heavy threat due to the changing climatic conditions with varying intensities worldwide. In developing and low-income agrarian economies, changing cli matic conditions strongly impact crop farming, causing a reduction in crop yields. Climate change is impacting rural live lihoods in the developing world and further increasing the vulnerability of farming communities (Abid et al, 2019). Farmers have been using recommended input levels and crop management strategies under changing climates, seasonal temperatures and heat stress adversely impact crop yields, especially wheat yield, which is more sensitive to heat (Arshad et al, 2017a)

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