Abstract
Coastal communities living in the low delta areas of Vietnam are increasingly vulnerable to tropical storms and related natural hazards of global climate change. Particularly in the Red River Delta Biosphere Reserve (RRDBR), farmers change the crop structure and diversify agricultural systems to adapt to the changing climate. The paper deals with a quantitative approach combined with behavior theories and surveyed data to analyze farmers’ intention to climate change adaptation in agriculture. Based on the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), seven constructs are developed to a questionnaire surveying 526 local farmers: risk perception, belief, habit, maladaptation, subjective norm, adaptation assessment, and adaptation intention. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is implemented to extract eight factors and to quantify the relationship between protective behavior factors with the adaptation intention of the surveyed farmers. Two bootstrap samples of sizes 800 and 1200 are generated to estimate the coefficients and standard errors. The SEM result suggests a regional and three local structural models for climate change adaptation intention of farmers living in the RRDBR. Farmers show a higher adaptation intention when they perceive higher climate risks threatening their physical health, finances, production, social relationships, and psychology. In contrast, farmers are less likely to intend to adapt when they are subject to wishful thinking, deny the climate risks, or believe in fatalism.
Highlights
Agriculture, a main economic sector in the tropics, is most vulnerable to climate change [1,2,3]
The results show that the adaptation intention of farmers is higher when people are aware of increasing electricity, water, and fuel prices; or when they are under pressure from other people to install adaptation measures [27]
526 farmers in the three districts are involved in a survey organized in December 2017
Summary
Agriculture, a main economic sector in the tropics, is most vulnerable to climate change [1,2,3]. Drought severity, groundwater depletion, education level, farm-size, access to climate information, electricity for irrigation, and agricultural subsidies were listed as socio-economic and climate factors underlying adaptation strategies [13,14,15]. Agricultural extension, access to the national rural employment guarantee scheme, crop loss compensation, and access to informal credit are determinants of climate change adaptation of farms [16]. Psychological mechanisms are important to understand farmer’s adaptation behavior toward climate change: efficacy beliefs were the strongest predictor of behavioral intentions, which provide reliable information for local agricultural development [17]. Agricultural experience, farm income, training, social capital, and communication to climate adaptation are listed as the most influential factors of climate change adaptation [18]
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