Farmer participation in voluntary land diversion schemes: Some observations from theory

Abstract

A method is developed for predicting participation in voluntary land diversion schemes. Prediction is based on two main variables: the extent to which farmers are, by inclination and circumstance, favourably disposed to a scheme; and the extent to which the particular scheme makes it attractive for farmers to put in at least some land. Data collected by Potter and Gasson (1988) who interviewed 145 farmers to determine attitudes to three hypothetical schemes are used to illustrate the method. Predictions are made of the proportions of farmers expected to enter Potter and Gasson's cereal, grassland and woodland schemes at two payment levels (£250 per hectare per annum and £500 per hectare per annum); and lower limit estimates are made of the amount of eligible land that is expected to be entered. Potter and Gasson's cereal scheme approximates the arrangements for fallow set-aside introduced into the United Kingdom from September 1988, whilst their grassland scheme compares closely with the option to revert arable to grass available in the South Downs and Suffolk River Valleys Environmentally Sensitive Areas designated in 1986 and 1987. The participation levels realised in these schemes are compared with those predicted using Potter and Gasson's data.