Farm level bio-economic modelling of aquatic animal disease and health interventions

Abstract

A farm level bio-economic model, for aquatic animal production, of the relationships between inputs (e.g. purchased animals), outputs (e.g. harvested animals) and gross margin (GM) was developed to assess ex-ante the economics of disease and animal health interventions. Feed costs were calculated from estimates of food conversion ratio (FCR), animals harvested and mortality. The model was applied to a typical grow-out rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) farm on Lake Titicaca, Peru and a typical shrimp (Paenus vannamei) farm in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The model was used in two analyses. Firstly, an approach to assess the burden of disease developed by the Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs) project was adopted. Output under conditions of ‘ideal health’ was estimated by reducing mortality to zero and removing health costs. GM in both systems increased by approximately 25% when production was kept constant (and stocking rates reduced) and more than doubled if production was allowed to rise (and initial stocking increased). The increase in GM under conditions of ideal compared with current production provided an estimate of the maximum possible benefit from improved health management. Secondly, break-even analysis was used to assess the economics of vaccination against infectious pancreatic necrosis (IPN) vaccine (rainbow trout - RBT) and probiotics (shrimp). If initial stocking was kept constant, and production allowed to rise, break-even points for the intervention (when GM was the same with and without the intervention) were achieved when mortality was reduced by 16% in RBT fry and juvenile and 28% in shrimp. If production was kept constant and benefit realised by reduced initial stocking, the break-even point was achieved for i) vaccination of RBT when mortality in fry and juveniles was reduced by 39%, and ii) probiotics in shrimp production when there was a 15% reduction in mortality (nursery and grow-out), 10% increase in shrimp weight at harvest and 10% improvement in FCR. The results demonstrate how relatively simple models, parameterised with basic farm production data, can assess the burden of disease and quantify ex-ante the potential benefit of interventions. In the absence of trial data, these analyses support decision-making by farmers. The models can be adapted for many aquaculture systems. Farm level results can be extrapolated to estimate disease burden, and benefits of interventions, at regional or national level and thus support informed decision-making and allocation of resources to health management.