Faraway War: Effects of the Ukraine War on South Asian Security Thinking

Abstract

Faraway War:Effects of the Ukraine War on South Asian Security Thinking Rajesh Rajagopalan (bio) The Russian invasion of Ukraine is potentially a turning point in global politics, serving as the indicator of a transition from a unipolar order to a new bipolar Cold War between the United States and China. While global political changes often have direct regional consequences, especially on the economies and fortunes of states in the region, their effect on the policies and attitudes of individual states may be exaggerated. Regional international politics have a rhythm that is more autonomous of the global order, even significant developments such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its aftereffects. This is because, on the one hand, for most states, local concerns usually predominate over global ones and, on the other hand, the effects of global changes on local issues are usually limited. Indeed, the potential effects of global changes tend to be viewed through a parochial lens and thus do not often lead to significant policy or attitudinal shifts. The implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for how South Asian states view their security problems is a good example. While several South Asian states have felt the knock-on effects of the Russian invasion, especially on their already struggling economies, it is unclear that security planners in the region see any clear lessons to be drawn from the war. India is an exception, as I outline below. However, even in the Indian case, the lessons from the war mostly appear to reinforce existing sentiments and policy approaches. The other South Asian states, except Pakistan, have neither the wherewithal nor the need to consider lessons from the faraway war. Pakistan, though more consequential, has been too beset by significant domestic political and economic problems to pay much attention or seriously consider these lessons either. Thus, this brief essay, which evaluates South Asia's consideration of the security lessons of the Ukraine war, will largely, though not exclusively, confine itself to examining how India has assessed the war. Following the introduction, the first section of the essay will broadly outline the effects the Ukraine war has had on the South Asian region. [End Page 47] The second section will assess two major lessons of the war that have been considered in South Asia, especially in India, and three smaller issues arising out of the war. A conclusion summarizes the essay's findings. Effects of the Ukraine War on South Asia There are at least two significant effects that all the countries in South Asia have faced as a consequence of the war in Ukraine. The first is economic pressure affecting a range of areas—from energy resources to food—that is exacerbated by the general uncertainty caused by the war. Some economies in the region were already in various stages of economic distress and political turmoil, and the war has put further pressure on them, particularly Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Pakistan's economic situation has been close to desperate, with its foreign exchange reserves reduced to cover just a couple of weeks' worth of imports.1 Though domestic economic mismanagement is no doubt an issue, the Ukraine war has raised both fuel and food prices, making an already bad situation much worse for Pakistan.2 The crisis has been sufficiently serious that two senior Pakistani analysts suggested "re-evaluating" Pakistan's external affairs, including strengthening relations with neighbors, even India.3 Similarly, Sri Lanka has been grappling with a debt and economic crisis that has morphed into a serious domestic political disturbance, and the country has turned to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $3 billion bailout.4 Meanwhile, Bangladesh's currency depreciated by 25% and its foreign reserves by 28%, leading to inflation, slowing economic growth, and an appeal to the IMF for aid.5 By contrast, the Indian economy did reasonably well in 2022, leading an IMF official to call it a relative "bright spot" in the [End Page 48] global economy that is growing faster than its peer economies.6 Despite this relatively sunny outlook, India did not escape unscathed: it recorded its currency's sharpest decline against the U.S. dollar since 2013, and...