Abstract
We implement a two-country online choice experiment on around 2000 respondents per country, first, investigate the formation of subjective survival expectations; and second, evaluate the relation between subjective survival expectations and attitudes pension regulations. Each respondent provided subjective survival probabilities a range of target ages in either a live to or die by framing, then subsets of respondents were sorted conditions where information about current cohort survival, personalized information on same-sex parent or grandparent survival, or both, were provided and the respondent updated their subjective survival expectations. Finally, respondents were asked their views on changes pension eligibility ages. We find that giving people information about the longevity of peers does not induce them revise their subjective survival expectations much, and neither does information about the relative longevity of their same-sex parent or grandparent. Live to and die by framing has a much larger effect on reported subjective expectations than personalized information about cohort or family longevity. However subjective expectations are relevant explaining opinions on retirement policy and planning. Regulators trying educate the public about longevity and the consequent need for delayed retirement or pension ages need alternative strategies.
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